In Sept 2020 I predicted that Trump would win the election or at least still be in office in Sept 2021. I was wrong and happy to say so. But it is worrying that it came so close to happening.
At least now we can focus on the other existential issues - the pandemic and climate change. There are encouraging signs on both these fronts although we must not become complacent. In order to be successful in tackling both of these issues, we must find ways to co-operate more on a global level. Certainly the global cooperation on the pandemic front shows that it can be done. However, there also remains some very nationalistic and inward thinking, especially with vaccinations, so the task ahead is not an easy one. The world is waiting for leadership in this and it is not entirely apparent that Biden, although much improved from Trump, is going to be that leader. Biden has many bridges to mend in the US not to mention the rest of the globe. Britain is much too preoccupied dealing with the various ramifications of Brexit to be effective leaders. Also, their current Prime Minister is not included or even qualified to be a world leader. With Merkel stepping down, there will be a power vacuum in the EU. That and the drag of Brexit could keep them out of the game for some time. China, while powerful, is not inclined to take on the role of bringing the world together, nor would they likely be accepted in such a role by most other nations at this time. Also they are currently too focused on world economic domination. Trudeau does have an opportunity to show global leadership but may soon be caught up in an election and thus will be very inward focused. Even if he were to step up, Canada does not have the political weight to single handedly provide that leadership. At best we can be facilitators. I encourage Trudeau to be that facilitator. Maybe that leadership will not come from the political realm but from corporations and other non-profit organizations. There are signs that they are realizing that they do have that power and even obligation to do so. They have a long way to go to gain the trust of people. Capitalism does not currently have a very good reputation in the public's mind. As individuals we have an obligation to be pushing for the leadership that the world so desperately needs now. With continued push from individuals in all spheres - political and corporate, a leader might emerge. Let's hope so.
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Or at least he will still be President a year from now.I recently watched some of the Republican presidential nomination convention (didn't have the stomach to watch the whole thing), and was impressed with how slick the convention was. They have put together a convincing story for those who want to believe. If the Democrats had a strong leader, then even such a slick story would not swing the election for Trump. Sadly the Democrats do not have a strong contender in Joe Biden. The one wild card is Kamala Harris and how much she can emerge as a strong leader. For some time now, the presidential elections have not been about changing the opinion of dedicated Republicans or Democrats. They are intractably polarized. The elections are all about the undecided and for them the Republicans have put together a fairly compelling story. Throughout history, leaders who face defeat in an upcoming election often create an external enemy. Patriotic voters then rally behind the leader to help fight that enemy. Trump has been trying to make China the enemy, however, China does not want Trump as President so will not likely play that game to the extent that it could swing the election. Russia does want Trump as President since they see him as most likely allowing them to continue with their quest to reform the former Soviet Union. Watch out for more Russian interference (although perhaps in a more subtle manner this time). The EU and UK are not likely enemies since they are both in survival mode and cannot afford to get embroiled in any controversies with the US. And that leaves Canada, but we are not big enough and bad enough to become real enemies in American eyes. Trump will however attempt to light fires between Canada and the US so be prepared for some rocky days ahead. So who is left to become the enemy? Well it seems it is the American people themselves. Trump will likely continue fanning the flames of racial discontent and rioting just so he can be the President of "Law and Order". If people become fearful enough about such rioting, they will support someone who they see as the strongest to deal with the situation. If the above plays out even to some extent, then the election could easily be close. And we already know that Trump has established enough doubt about the legitimacy of some votes to contest the results. It could even go to the courts and there is none better at playing the legal system than Trump. Another factor which could help Trump is the development of a Covid-19 vaccine and/or treatment. There are some encouraging developments with both vaccines and treatments and while they may not be ready by November, you can bet that Trump will leverage every bit of good news. Business activity and stock markets are likely to respond favourably to such news as well. If Trump does win or "hang on", then the only thing that will save America is the Democrats controlling both the house and the senate after the elections. And that is not a sure thing for all of the reasons above. I hope I'm wrong. On Wed 15 May 2019, President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency over threats against American technology.
The executive order bars the use of telecommunications equipment made by companies that are deemed a threat to national security, clearing the way for an outright ban on products made by Huawei. The day after the Executive Order was signed, the US the Commerce Department added Huawei and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List” after it concluded that the Chinese company was engaged in activities “contrary to US national security or foreign policy interests”. On Tue 23 July 2019, Attorney General William P. Barr delivered a Keynote Address at the International Conference on Cyber Security in New York, NY. In this speech, Barr makes the case for back door access to apps and devices. In his address, Barr states that "Service providers, device manufacturers and application developers are developing and deploying encryption that can only be decrypted by the end user or customer, and they are refusing to provide technology that allows for lawful access by law enforcement agencies in appropriate circumstances." He ends his address strongly indicating that the US will legislate such access if the private sector does not voluntarily provide it. "Obviously, the Department would like to engage with the private sector in exploring solutions that will provide lawful access. While we remain open to a cooperative approach, the time to achieve that may be limited. Key countries, including important allies, have been moving toward legislative and regulatory solutions. I think it is prudent to anticipate that a major incident may well occur at any time that will galvanize public opinion on these issues. Whether we end up with legislation or not, the best course for everyone involved is to work soberly and in good faith together to craft appropriate solutions, rather than have outcomes dictated during a crisis." So the US wants to have back door access to devices and apps, many of which are used by everyone around the world, including the Chinese, but bars Chinese equipment for having even the potential of back door access. This is not only the height of hypocrisy, it will rapidly move the world toward "cyber warfare". A war that the US cannot win. The US will lose technologically and economically. And why will the US lose this war? Because China has more than 10 times the number of researchers already working on it, many of whom were educated in the western world. It is in the best interests of the US, and the world, to embrace Globalization and work cooperatively towards globally unified standards and regulations for technologies, including security. This could include legal access to information under well defined circumstances which apply to all. You see, the US wants this access but they do not want to clearly define the circumstances for when access is allowed. It is reasonable to assume that China has exactly the same position. If the world sits down at the table to sort this out, the US and China, and everyone else will have to clearly define when and how access is exercised. Would such a process be perfect? No, but the alternative is that access will be imposed without any hope that there will be at least some safeguards. Trump's fight with Huawei is illogical and may end up being disastrous for the western world in the long run.
Currently, there is more US technology in Huawei smartphones than Chinese technology. In a world where we cross-license technologies on a global basis, everyone can win. In a world where we force China to develop its own technology to replace US technology, there are many losers, especially in the western world. China can and will, if forced to, develop its own version of Google, Facebook, Intel CPU chips, Windows & Android operating systems, communications technologies, etc, etc, etc. In a world split between totally incompatible systems, the biggest player will win - guess what USA, you will no longer be the biggest player - by a wide margin. You will lose. The USA is "afraid" that the Chinese will use Huawei's 5G technology to spy on them. Like the USA does not already use the almost weekly security breaches in Windows, Intel chips, etc to spy on China. There is no such thing as perfect "zero risk" software or hardware. All systems are subject to hacking. Is it not better to be working together to combat cybercrime, than starting a "cyber" cold war? For sure China has flagrantly flaunted copyright laws in the past but this is rapidly changing as they develop more and more of their own technologies for which they too have a vested interest in a rigorous global copyright system. The fact that the USA cannot possibly win a "cyber" cold war, or even outright cyber warfare, was quietly but forcefully demonstrated at a recent international conference on Artificial Intelligence. The USA was arrogantly stating that they will win the AI race since they had over 2000 PhD's working in this field. The Chinese delegate quietly pointed out to the audience that the Chinese had 20,000 PhD's working in this field. And this huge intellectual advantage is true for virtually every major technological field. A robust global technology-based economy where everyone is contributing and benefiting is the "only" winning strategy for the USA and the western world. Canada, stand up for this reality and allow Huawei to compete for the 5G market. Perhaps that will be the wakeup call that the USA so desperately needs. Trump publicly said that he may intervene with the Justice Dept to use Meng Wanzhou as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with China. Trudeau should immediately declare that Canada will not extradite Meng Wanzhou because she will not be guaranteed a fair trial in the US.
Imagine a world where governments around the world started to arrest important people from other countries in order to use them as negotiating chips in some perceived dispute. This is very, very, very dangerous. We cannot allow this to happen. Canada can be a leader in the world in taking a stand against this disintegration of justice, even if there will be short-term consequences from the bully south of the border. There is an ongoing debate amongst historians as to when Globalization actually started. Some argue it started when Christopher Columbus discovered the Americas, and yet others argue it started long before then. 1750 is cited as the start of “modern waves of globalization”.
There is no question however that globalization had a significant uptick after WWII with the most significant growth occurring with the advent of the technological era in the late 1900’s. However you define globalization, it has never been a smooth progression. There have been periods when globalization actually appeared to have declined. There are wide-ranging debates about the pros and cons of globalization, however, I am going to focus on one clear benefit - the expansion of economic activity facilitated by trade deals around the world due largely to globalization. What Donald Trump and his administration do not seem to understand it that this aspect of globalization helped lift over a billion out of poverty and into middle classes in countries all around the world. It is a form of wealth distribution that benefits all parties. The US now has the potential of over a billion new global customers. The US has benefited from low cost technology (from global manufacturers) which has helped it grow and become even wealthier (albeit poorly distributed within the US which is now a source of many problems for them). Donald Trump and his administration is trying to preserve jobs which are going to be lost to rapid developments in technology. The majority of jobs in the USA today did not even exist 50 years ago and that change is just going to quicken. What Donald Trump and his administration should be doing is focusing on educating people in a way that allows them to benefit from the rapid and disruptive changes in jobs due to technology. The USA should be focusing on developing industries that will create these future jobs, many of which could benefit from open global markets. As it is, Donald Trump is focused on tearing up trade deals and building walls, both of which will cut off the USA from dramatically increasing global markets as more and more people rise out of poverty and into the middle classes. In many respects, the USA is no longer “great” nor “good”, and Trump is going to make that even worse. The decline of the American empire started in the early 2000’s and that decline is about to quicken under Trump. |
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