Or at least he will still be President a year from now.I recently watched some of the Republican presidential nomination convention (didn't have the stomach to watch the whole thing), and was impressed with how slick the convention was. They have put together a convincing story for those who want to believe. If the Democrats had a strong leader, then even such a slick story would not swing the election for Trump. Sadly the Democrats do not have a strong contender in Joe Biden. The one wild card is Kamala Harris and how much she can emerge as a strong leader. For some time now, the presidential elections have not been about changing the opinion of dedicated Republicans or Democrats. They are intractably polarized. The elections are all about the undecided and for them the Republicans have put together a fairly compelling story. Throughout history, leaders who face defeat in an upcoming election often create an external enemy. Patriotic voters then rally behind the leader to help fight that enemy. Trump has been trying to make China the enemy, however, China does not want Trump as President so will not likely play that game to the extent that it could swing the election. Russia does want Trump as President since they see him as most likely allowing them to continue with their quest to reform the former Soviet Union. Watch out for more Russian interference (although perhaps in a more subtle manner this time). The EU and UK are not likely enemies since they are both in survival mode and cannot afford to get embroiled in any controversies with the US. And that leaves Canada, but we are not big enough and bad enough to become real enemies in American eyes. Trump will however attempt to light fires between Canada and the US so be prepared for some rocky days ahead. So who is left to become the enemy? Well it seems it is the American people themselves. Trump will likely continue fanning the flames of racial discontent and rioting just so he can be the President of "Law and Order". If people become fearful enough about such rioting, they will support someone who they see as the strongest to deal with the situation. If the above plays out even to some extent, then the election could easily be close. And we already know that Trump has established enough doubt about the legitimacy of some votes to contest the results. It could even go to the courts and there is none better at playing the legal system than Trump. Another factor which could help Trump is the development of a Covid-19 vaccine and/or treatment. There are some encouraging developments with both vaccines and treatments and while they may not be ready by November, you can bet that Trump will leverage every bit of good news. Business activity and stock markets are likely to respond favourably to such news as well. If Trump does win or "hang on", then the only thing that will save America is the Democrats controlling both the house and the senate after the elections. And that is not a sure thing for all of the reasons above. I hope I'm wrong.
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February 2024
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