Over 60% of the Canadian population lean left of centre politically. The Liberals, NDP, Greens and even the BQ are left of centre parties. Currently, only about 35% of the population lean to the right of centre politically. The Conservatives and the new Peoples Party are right of centre. And yet ironically, it now appears that the Conservatives, with less than 40% of the vote, could form the next government, albeit a minority government.
Remember what happened in Ontario in the last provincial election. Doug Ford won a majority with about 40% of the vote. Ford then went on to apply the Conservative platform without even consulting the other 60% of the population. And now the same sort of thing could happen federally. This is exactly why the majority of the population supported the idea of proportional representation during the last election. To avoid such lopsided results. So what happened to proportional representation? Shortly after being elected in October 2015, the Liberals formed an all party committee charged with proposing a proportional representation electoral system for this 2019 election. The Liberals had the majority of the members on this committee to which the Conservatives vigorously objected. The Conservatives also helped to whip up a media frenzy around this issue. If the Liberals really believed in a proportional representation system, then they should appoint such committees on that basis. So they relented and gave up the majority on the committee. The Conservatives then said they would not support any proportional representation without a referendum. The Liberals chose to give up proportional representation for this election cycle rather than have a very polarizing referendum. After seeing what happened with Brexit, that probably was the best call for the country although not for the Liberals. It is exactly what the Conservatives wanted. As a result, they have a chance of forming the next government. What can be done at this late date? The Voters should vote strategically. The Liberals should announce that they will commit a position in the Liberal Cabinet to both the NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, and the Green Party leader, Elizabeth May. This would be on the expectation that they will work to achieve consensus on proposed legislation rather than apply obstructionist vetoes. By doing this, Trudeau and the Liberals will go part way towards a form of proportional representation. Trudeau and the Liberals would not ask long term supporters of NDP or Greens to change their vote, but they would have to ask that swing voters to vote strategically and support the Liberals to ensure that the Conservatives do not win. In really tight races, even long term NDP and Green voters might choose to vote strategically to ensure they have a seat at the table. In Quebec, the situation is more complicated. If there is a significant swing towards the BQ and its charismatic leader Blanchet, that alone could swing the results enough nationally to enable the Conservatives to win. It is difficult to offer a seat in the Cabinet, which works for all Canadians, to a leader who says he speaks only for Quebecers. Perhaps some other accommodation could be worked out. So Quebecers are also going to have to choose whether or not to vote strategically. To have a strong voice in Ottawa, supporting Liberals would be their best option. Liberals have been strong supporters of Quebecers. One thing that is crucial is that everyone exercises their right and civic duty to vote. Then we will all own the result, whatever it may be.
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